The China-Vietnam Conflict:The Winner&Loser Scenario

Invasion of Vietnam by the People's Republic o...
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Some people say China will lost the war. But it doesn’t really matter.

It doesn’t need to win a war to win.

I call this a limited invasion: destroy Vietnamese infrastructures and facilities to sustain the war and economic growth, and bring about the regime change or a civil war in Vietnam.

Vietnam’s communist regime is standing on the edge while the economy is melting down and people are thinking of unrest and democracy.

China should never consider occupation as an objective. Once the damage is inflicted enough to deprive Vietnam of the ability to sustain a war with China and bring about Vietnam’s economic collapse and domestic chaos, the PPL should withdraw. The Vietnamese communist regime will fall on its own sword and too busy with internal turmoil to wage a war against China.

I also call this a Scalpel Invasion. Once the objective is achieved, the army should retreat like Scalpel needs not to stay in the body after the operation is performed.

This will be the difference between the Chinese and American Vietnam war.

The mentality of modern war should be changed. A loser in the war can still be a winner in the overall game. Sometime it shouldn’t be about simply inflicting military damage and casualties. It could be about destroying the enemy’s economic growth, energy supply and production, food supply and production, and water supply. The ensuing famine, chaos and economic collapse will decapitate the adversary ruling structure, causing political and social earthquake, and even civil war and many other internal turmoils. The repercussion of such strategy far outstrips the performance any conventional war ideology can deliver, especially in the upcoming Chinese Vietnam War. It’s good enough to render the enemy paralysed in the economic, societal and governmental meltdown. This is what I call limited surgical warfare with permanent damage.

The “win or lose” should not be about military honor. It is only about the bigger game.

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One thought on “The China-Vietnam Conflict:The Winner&Loser Scenario

  1. China tried in 1978 -1979 and may try again, but they will never win “einen blitz Krieg”, thus the wishful thinking of teaching Vietnam a second lesson remains to be seen.

    Unless China or any world power goes “nuke”, they will not get out of the war that easily without getting inflicted heavy damages to say the least.

    Vietnam could not be bombed back to the “Stone Age’ by US B52 Bombers, so how do you think the Chinese Army can destroy Vietnam’s infrastructure without occupying the country of nearly 100 million people?

    And that is a tall order they better recognize it before they even try.

    You are wrong to say that the country is in chaos once the Chinese Army have left.

    If China invades, the Vietnamese people will be united and you will see very few running away without a fight. You can count on old and young people taking arm because there is no other choice left, and that is my firm bet.

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